Home Value Declines 2025: The Truth About Your Equity

Home value declines 2025 headlines are everywhere right now, and if you’re a homeowner, they’re hard to ignore. When you hear that “more than half of U.S. homes lost value this year,” it can feel unsettling—because your home isn’t just a place you live. It’s your financial anchor. Your safety net. One of the biggest contributors to your long-term wealth.

But here’s the truth missing from the national noise: a headline can’t tell you the story of your equity. It can’t tell you what’s happening in your neighborhood, on your street, or inside the real appreciation you’ve built over time. And as someone who takes a fiduciary-style approach when advising homeowners and homebuyers across Raleigh, Cary, Apex, and Wake County, my role is to bring clarity where the headlines create confusion.

This op-ed breaks down what’s actually happening behind the 2025 home value declines, why the data is far less alarming than it sounds, and what your real equity position likely looks like beneath the surface.

Much of the national data referenced in this analysis comes from Zillow’s November 2025 report:
“Home value declines spread, but losses since last sale are rare.”

The Headline: Yes, 53% of Homes Declined in Value This Year

According to Zillow’s latest analysis, 53% of U.S. homes saw their Zestimates fall over the past year—the highest share since 2012.

That’s a big number.
It’s attention-grabbing.
It’s meant to spark fear.

But here’s what almost no one is explaining:

A decline from peak is NOT a decline from what you paid.

In other words, just because your Zestimate dipped doesn’t mean your equity disappeared.

And that difference is everything.

The Reality: Actual Equity Losses Are Still Rare

Here’s the number homeowners should be paying attention to:

Only 4.1% of homes are valued below their last sale price.

Let’s flip that around:

That means 95.9% of homeowners still have positive equity.

And of those few seeing declines:

• Only 1.6% are down more than 5%.
• Only 3.4% of new listings are priced below the seller’s previous purchase price.

These are not numbers that reflect a distressed market. In fact, they reflect stability.

Most homeowners—especially those who bought before the pandemic boom—are sitting on years of appreciation, not losses.

This is particularly true in Raleigh and Wake County, where demand continues to be supported by jobs, population growth, and constrained inventory.

Why Values Are “Down” But Equity Isn’t

1. Home values surged during 2020–2022.

Many homes hit their all-time peak values just a year or two ago.
A pullback from an unprecedented peak is normal. Healthy, even.

2. Most people bought long before the peak.

According to Zillow data, the median homeowner purchased their home 8.6 years ago.

In that time, they’ve gained an average of 67.2% in value.

That’s real equity.
That’s real wealth.
And a 3–9% pullback from the peak doesn’t erase it.

3. Declines are location-specific, not universal.

The deepest value drops have been concentrated in:

• Denver
• Austin
• Sacramento
• Phoenix
• Dallas

Meanwhile, Raleigh, Cary, Apex, and most of the Triangle continue to show far more stability and significantly fewer homes underwater.

Real estate is always local.
But more importantly: Real estate is personal.

Your home does not follow a national trendline.

Why Homeowners Aren’t Panicking—And Shouldn’t

Despite the headlines, we are not seeing:

• A spike in forced selling
• A wave of underwater mortgages
• Panic listing behavior

In fact:

Only 3.4% of new listings are priced below the last sale

This is below the number of homes that have technically lost value.

That tells us something important:

Homeowners aren’t being forced to sell.

They’re choosing when and how to sell.**

Why?
Because many homeowners still have:

• Low, fixed mortgage payments
• Strong equity positions
• No financial pressure to rush into the market

This is the opposite of 2008 behavior.

Strength, not stress, is what we’re seeing.

The Personal Side: If Home Values Are Down, What About Your Equity?

I want to say this loudly:

Your equity is not a national statistic.

It’s tied to:

• Your neighborhood
• Your micro-market
• Your home’s condition
• Your block
• Your exact purchase price
• Your timing
• Your mortgage strategy

Even in markets where 50%+ of homes saw value declines, many homeowners still saw net equity gains because they purchased long before the run-up.

That’s why generic headlines don’t help homeowners—they mislead them.

What matters is your home’s actual data, not a national chart.

This is exactly why we offer a personalized Same-As-Cash Mortgage Approval and a fiduciary-style approach at Martini Mortgage Group — because your financial decisions deserve clarity based on your numbers.

So… Should You Worry About Home Value Declines?

Short answer: No!

Long answer:
Home values are recalibrating after a historic boom.
The trends are uneven and hyper-local.
And equity positions remain overwhelmingly strong.

What matters most right now is understanding your personal equity story, not the national one.

If you want the real numbers—not the headlines—reach out and I’ll create a complimentary, personalized home equity snapshot for you.

TL;DR: What 2025 Home Value Declines Really Mean for Raleigh Homeowners

Home value declines in 2025 are real—but the narrative behind them has been wildly misunderstood. Yes, 53% of homes saw Zestimates fall this past year. But only 4.1% of homes are actually worth less than their last sale price, and fewer than 1.6% are down meaningfully (5% or more).

What does that mean for homeowners in Raleigh, Cary, Apex, and Wake County?

It means the vast majority are still sitting on years of appreciation and strong equity positions, even if their Zestimates slipped from peak levels. Most homeowners bought long before the pandemic spike, and those equity gains haven’t disappeared.

Raleigh is also far more stable than markets where declines are concentrated (Austin, Denver, Phoenix). Inventory remains tight, and forced selling is rare—only 3.4% of new listings hit the market at a loss.

The Martini Mortgage Group Bottom line:

The headlines are loud, but your equity is stronger than you think. And if you want to know your true equity position—not the national numbers—reach out for a personalized home equity snapshot.

Frequently Asked Questions About Home Value Declines in 2025

Additional Resources for Raleigh Homebuyer and Homeowners

Because clarity creates confidence — and confidence creates power — here are additional resources from Martini Mortgage Group to help you make smarter, more strategic real-estate and mortgage decisions:

Logan Martini

Raleigh Housing Market 2026 Forecast: Bright Turn Ahead

Living in Raleigh

Martini Mortgage Podcast