Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update: When the Job Market Cools, Rates Pay Attention

Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for January 10, 2026, by Martini Mortgage Group.
This week, a wave of labor market data landed — and the message was consistent: hiring is cooling, growth is slowing, and mortgage markets are watching closely.

Federal Reserve & Inflation Watch

You might be wondering why jobs data keeps stealing the spotlight.

Here’s why that matters.

A softer labor market tends to cool inflation pressure. And when inflation cools, bond markets breathe easier. That matters because mortgage rates track long-term bond yields — not the Fed’s overnight rate.

This week’s numbers leaned in that direction.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, December job growth came in lighter than expected. Employers added 50,000 jobs, below the 73,000 forecast. Additionally, October and November payrolls were revised lower by a combined 76,000 jobs.

Yes, the unemployment rate edged down from 4.5% to 4.4%. But context matters. Revisions and trendlines tell the deeper story: deceleration.

Raleigh Mortgage Rates & Market Movement

Private-sector data echoed the same theme.

December saw 41,000 private-sector jobs added, following a 29,000 loss in November. Helpful? Sure. But zoom out and the picture changes.

Over the past five months, private payroll growth totals just 27,000 jobs. That’s not expansion — that’s hesitation.

Here’s what that means for Raleigh mortgage rates: When hiring slows, wage pressure eases. When wage pressure eases, inflation expectations cool. And when inflation expectations cool, mortgage rates get room to stabilize — or drift lower.

Remember, the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. Markets do. And markets listen closely to labor trends.

Housing Trends & Price Outlook

Housing data also leaned softer.

Delayed government reports showed housing starts fell 4.6% month over month in October, reaching their lowest level since early pandemic conditions. Building permits — a forward-looking signal — slipped another 0.2%.

Translation: fewer homes are coming online. That matters because limited supply tends to support home values, even when demand slows.

So while construction activity is easing, pricing pressure hasn’t collapsed, especially in resilient markets like the Triangle of North Carolina.

Raleigh / Wake County Snapshot

Zooming in locally, Raleigh and Wake County continue to show steadiness.

Inventory remains constrained. Job growth here hasn’t vanished; it’s just normalizing. And population inflows continue to support housing demand.

National headlines chase drama. Local data tells a calmer story. Raleigh isn’t overheating, and it isn’t unraveling.

That balance matters for both buyers and homeowners when making long-term decisions.

Buyer & Homeowner Perspective

You might be asking yourself: Is this a moment to move — or to wait?

Here’s the practical takeaway. Cooling labor data often creates short windows where rates stabilize before broader sentiment shifts. Add policy developments such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac being directed to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, and markets take notice.

That announcement, made by President Donald J. Trump, was met with a positive market reaction. It’s not a guarantee. But it is a meaningful signal and one we’re watching closely.

Whether you’re considering a purchase, a refinance, or simply want clarity around your options, this is where strategy matters more than timing headlines.

TL;DR (Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for January 10, 2026, by Martini Mortgage Group)

• December job growth missed expectations, reinforcing a cooling labor trend.
• Payroll revisions and private-sector data confirm hiring momentum is slowing.
• Housing starts and permits declined, signaling a tighter future supply.
• Mortgage markets responded positively to news of increased MBS support.
• Raleigh and Wake County remain stable, supported by limited inventory and steady demand.

The Kevin Martini Takeaway

The job market is cooling. Construction is easing. And Raleigh’s housing market? Still steady — still resilient. While national headlines swing between fear and hope, local data points to something quieter: opportunity for those who prepare early. When rates wobble and narratives shift, clarity becomes leverage. And leverage builds wealth. If you’re ready to replace uncertainty with a plan, let’s talk.
📞 Call Kevin Martini at (919) 238-4934 or Schedule a Complimentary Consultation and move forward with confidence.

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