Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update: The Fed’s Balancing Act

Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for November 8, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group.

Federal Reserve & Inflation Watch

The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, according to ADP. That’s a modest rebound after two months of declines, but it’s hardly a hiring surge. In fact, the last three months combined show just 10,000 total jobs gained — a sign that the labor market’s once-red-hot momentum has cooled.

You may wonder why this ADP report is so important. Normally, the U.S. government’s official jobs data gives the Fed its clearest read on employment strength. But with that data delayed due to the recent federal shutdown, private reports like ADP’s are now carrying extra weight.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell summed it up best: there’s “no risk-free path” ahead. Translation? The Fed is trying to ease inflation without breaking the job market — a high-wire act that leaves every policy decision open to change.

Raleigh Mortgage Rates & Market Movement

October’s job numbers didn’t pack enough punch to shift the Fed’s course. They’re not strong enough to prevent future rate cuts but not weak enough to demand them either.

Here’s why that matters: when the Fed changes rates, it’s adjusting the Federal Funds Rate, which is what banks charge each other for short-term borrowing. That doesn’t directly set your Raleigh mortgage rate, but it influences it through inflation expectations and bond yields.

In plain English: the Fed’s decisions shape the mood of the market. When inflation appears to be under control, investors feel more confident, and Raleigh mortgage rates typically become more affordable. When uncertainty grows, rates can hold firm or even rise, as we’ve seen in recent months.

Housing Trends & Price Outlook

In housing, Cotality’s latest report shows that home values dipped 0.2% in September, but are still 1.2% higher than a year ago. That small monthly pullback isn’t a red flag; it’s a reminder that housing behaves seasonally, especially in the fall.

Looking ahead, Cotality forecasts a 4.1% rise in home values over the next 12 months, powered by easing Raleigh mortgage rates and consistent buyer demand.

Here’s why that matters: if a $500,000 home appreciates by 4%, that’s $20,000 in gained equity, simply by owning, not renting. Real estate remains one of the most reliable long-term wealth-building tools, especially in stable markets like Raleigh and Wake County.

Raleigh Homebuyer & Homeowner Perspective

If you’re watching the headlines and wondering whether to move forward, refinance, or wait it out, you’re not alone. Remember: markets move in cycles, while your personal goals are constant.

Waiting for “perfect timing” often means missing the opportunity that’s right in front of you. Whether you’re upgrading, downsizing, or buying your first home, clarity matters more than prediction.

TL;DR (Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for November 8, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group)

• ADP reported 42,000 private-sector jobs added in October — modest but steady.
• The delay in federal jobs data means private reports carry more influence with the Fed.
• Raleigh mortgage rates remain steady, influenced by inflation and the bond market’s sentiment.
• Home prices in Raleigh slipped slightly in September but remain higher year-over-year.
• Cotality forecasts a 4.1% annual price gain, showing continued housing resilience.
• Owning a $500K home appreciating at 4% adds $20,000 in equity per year — a clear case for long-term ownership.

The Martini Mortgage Group Takeaway

The job market’s cooling. The Fed’s cautious. And Raleigh’s housing scene? Still steady and still strong.
Even as national headlines chase drama, local data tells a simpler story: opportunity favors the prepared.

Because when rates wobble and prices pause, strategic buyers and refinancers quietly build wealth while everyone else waits for “someday.”

Call the Martini Mortgage Group at (919) 238-4934 and let’s build your personalized plan with clarity and confidence.

Additional Resources from Martini Mortgage Group

At Martini Mortgage Group, education is at the heart of every mortgage strategy. Explore these handpicked resources to gain clarity, confidence, and a deeper understanding of homeownership in Raleigh and throughout Wake County.

Logan Martini

North Carolina Mortgage Guide

Martini Mortgage Podcast

Top Raleigh Mortgage Lender

What People Say About Martini Mortgage Group