Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for December 6, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group.
This past week, the labor market flashed new signs of cooling, and inflation showed a small but meaningful step in the right direction.

Federal Reserve & Inflation Watch

The delayed September PCE report finally landed, and it was almost perfectly in line with expectations. But here’s the part worth circling:

Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — dipped from 2.9% to 2.8% year-over-year.

A small step? Yes.
A helpful one? Absolutely.

Because when inflation cools, the Fed gains more room to ease policy. But here’s the catch you might be wondering about:

Weak inflation alone doesn’t guarantee rate cuts.
The Fed is trying to thread a needle — guiding inflation back toward 2% without stalling the broader economy.

As Jerome Powell put it this week, there is “no risk-free path.”

In other words, even though the odds of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting have risen, the Fed remains divided. Some see the cooling data as support for easing. Others worry inflation hasn’t fallen far enough.

Remember: The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. It adjusts the Federal Funds Rate — a short-term rate banks charge each other — and the expectation of future policy shifts moves mortgage rates more than the Fed’s actual decisions.

That’s why mortgage rates can improve before the Fed cuts… or rise even when the Fed doesn’t.

Mortgage Rates & Market Movement

With weaker jobs data and slowing inflation, mortgage markets reacted the way they often do when the economy shows softness:

Rates held steady to slightly lower across most loan types.

Not dramatic movement — but meaningful.

Especially for buyers waiting for affordability relief or homeowners monitoring refinance triggers.

What this means for you is simple:

When the economy cools, investors shift toward safer assets, such as mortgage-backed securities, which can help lower borrowing costs. It’s quiet, predictable, and easy to miss if you’re only watching headlines.

Housing Trends & Price Outlook

A softening job market doesn’t automatically mean a weakening housing market.

In Raleigh and across Wake County, prices continue to hold firm. Inventory remains tight. And even with cooling economic data, demand hasn’t vanished — it’s just more measured.

Buyers who stay proactive often gain leverage during times like these.
Sellers get more realistic.

Right now, the story isn’t about big swings.

It’s about small shifts that create space for smart planning

Buyer & Homeowner Perspective

If you’re buying:

A cooling economy paired with softer inflation often opens doors — literally. Negotiation power increases, and small rate improvements can shift your affordability in meaningful ways.

If you’re a homeowner:

Periods like this are when you want your loan under proactive supervision. Not all refinances make sense today… but the math is changing. And when the right moment hits, you’ll want to be ready.

Here’s why that matters:

Opportunity rarely announces itself. It rewards the people who stay prepared.

TL;DR (Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for December 6, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group)

• ADP reported 32,000 private-sector job losses, signaling a cooling labor market.
• Over the past four months, the private sector has shed 17,000 jobs, showing a clear softening trend.
• Core PCE inflation dipped from 2.9% → 2.8%, giving the Fed slightly more breathing room.
• The Fed remains divided ahead of its December 10 meeting, with rate cuts possible but not guaranteed.
• Mortgage rates held steady to slightly lower, responding to weaker economic data.
• Raleigh and Wake County continue to show steady demand and tight inventory, keeping prices firm.

THE MARTINI MORTGAGE GROUP TAKEAWAY

The job market’s cooling. Inflation is slowly cooperating. And Raleigh’s housing pulse remains steady, even as broader headlines lean dramatic. These are the moments where preparation pays off — when small shifts today can set up major opportunities tomorrow. Whether you’re exploring buying options or thinking ahead about refinancing, clarity is your most powerful advantage. If you want confidence in your next move, let’s build that plan together.

📞 Call the Martini Mortgage Group at (919) 238-4934 or schedule your complimentary consultation and step into the market with certainty.

Kevin Martini

Martini Mortgage Podcast