Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update: Inflation Cools, Jobs Soften, Opportunity Emerges

Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for December 19, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group.

This week, delayed government data finally dropped, and it painted a clearer picture of where inflation, jobs, and housing are heading as we close out the year.

And the story is quieter than the headlines suggest.

Federal Reserve & Inflation Watch

Let’s start with inflation because that’s still the Fed’s north star.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation cooling more than expected. Annual CPI eased to 2.7%, down from 3% in the prior report. Core inflation — which strips out food and energy — also moved lower, falling to 2.6%, its lowest reading since early 2021.

You might be wondering: Does missing data from the October shutdown change the message?

Not really.

Even with some gaps, the direction matters. And the direction is clear — price pressures are easing.

Shelter costs, one of the stickiest parts of inflation, also came in cooler. That’s meaningful. Housing-related inflation has been one of the biggest reasons rates stayed elevated longer than many expected.

Remember, the Fed doesn’t set Raleigh mortgage rates directly; however, it influences them through inflation expectations and bond yields. Cooler inflation helps calm those expectations.

Labor Market Check-In

Now let’s talk jobs because this is the other side of the Fed’s balancing act.

Payrolls fell by 105,000 jobs in October, followed by a modest rebound of 64,000 jobs added in November, slightly above expectations. On the surface, that appears to be stabilization.

But here’s the nuance.

The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, and it’s been steadily rising from 4.1% back in July.

Even more telling? Nearly one million full-time jobs were lost, while over one million part-time jobs were gained.

That shift matters.

It signals that employers are becoming more cautious and leaning toward flexibility rather than long-term commitments. That’s not panic. But it is softness.

What this means for you is simple: the Fed is now weighing cooling inflation against a cooling labor market. Both point toward a more cautious — not aggressive — path forward.

Mortgage Rates & Market Movement

So, where does this leave Raleigh mortgage rates?

Rates remain sensitive. Volatile week to week. But the underlying pressure is easing.

Cooling inflation reduces the need for a higher-for-longer policy. A softening labor market limits how tight the Fed can stay without risking economic damage.

Translation? The ceiling for rates looks more defined than it did earlier this year.

We’re not calling victory laps. But the environment is shifting from defensive to strategic.

Housing Trends & Price Outlook

Housing quietly delivered another signal.

Existing home closings rose 0.5% in November, marking the third straight monthly increase. That’s not a surge — but it is momentum.

Inventory, however, dropped nearly 6% from October, largely due to seasonal seller hesitation. Fewer listings. Fewer choices.

Builder confidence has edged higher, but buyers are still cautious. Higher construction costs and economic uncertainty are keeping sentiment balanced — not euphoric.

This creates a very specific window.

When demand is selective and supply is constrained, well-prepared buyers gain leverage without bidding-war chaos.

Raleigh / Wake County Snapshot

Here in Raleigh and across Wake County, the pattern holds.

We’re seeing steady buyer activity — not frantic, not frozen. Homes priced correctly and well-positioned are still moving. Overpriced listings? They sit.

Local inventory remains tight relative to national averages, but buyer behavior is more strategic. More questions. More negotiation. More strategy.

And that’s healthy.

If you’re buying in Raleigh, refinancing in Wake County, or planning your next move in North Carolina, this market rewards preparation — not prediction. If you’re thinking ahead, here’s a deeper look at why timing, strategy, and local dynamics may make January 2026 a uniquely strong window to buy in Raleigh:

Buyer & Homeowner Perspective

If you’re a buyer, you’re no longer competing against everyone. If you’re a homeowner, you’re sitting on options — even if rates haven’t hit your “perfect number.”

Here’s why that matters.

Opportunity rarely announces itself loudly. It shows up when uncertainty keeps others on the sidelines.

Right now, uncertainty is doing most of the heavy lifting.

TL;DR (Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for December 19, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group)

• Inflation cooled more than expected, with CPI easing to 2.7% and core inflation to 2.6%
• Shelter costs helped keep overall inflation pressures in check
• The labor market is softening, with unemployment rising to 4.6%
• Full-time jobs declined while part-time work increased — a sign of caution, not collapse
• Existing home sales rose for a third straight month, while inventory fell seasonally
• In Raleigh and Wake County, prepared buyers are finding opportunity in a calmer market

The Martini Mortgage Group Takeaway

The data is doing something important right now — it’s lowering the volume.

Inflation is cooling. Jobs are softening. And Raleigh’s housing market? Still steady. Still resilient.

When headlines chase drama, strategy quietly creates advantage. Prepared buyers and proactive homeowners don’t wait for perfect conditions — they build plans around real ones.

If clarity creates certainty — and certainty creates power — let’s get you both. Call the Martini Mortgage Group at (919) 238-4934, explore our resources like Top Raleigh Mortgage Lender, tune into the Martini Mortgage Podcast, download the North Carolina Mortgage Guide, check out the Living in Raleigh Guide, or Schedule a Complimentary Consultation, and let’s map your next move with confidence.

Kevin Martini