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Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update: Strong GDP, Quiet Markets, and What It Signals Next | December 26, 2025

Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for December 26, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group. This week was quiet ahead of the Christmas holiday market closures — but one delayed economic report quietly changed the backdrop.

Federal Reserve & Inflation Watch

We finally received the first estimate of third-quarter 2025 GDP, and it surprised nearly everyone.

The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annualized pace, well above expectations of 3.3%.

That follows 3.8% growth in Q2 and a 0.6% contraction in Q1, putting year-to-date growth at a steady 2.5%.

You might be wondering why this matters for mortgage rates.

Here’s why that matters: GDP is one of the clearest signals of overall economic momentum. Strong growth tells the Federal Reserve the economy isn’t stalling — but it doesn’t automatically mean higher rates are coming next.

Remember, the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. It influences them through inflation expectations and bond markets.

This report showed strength — but not overheating.

Mortgage Rates & Market Movement

Mortgage markets were mostly unchanged this week due to holiday-thinned trading. But underneath the calm, the GDP details mattered.

Consumer spending — the largest driver of GDP — was the main engine of growth. A notable portion came from a surge in electric vehicle purchases ahead of the EV tax credit expiration at the end of Q3. Government spending and exports also helped push the number higher.

At the same time, business investment softened, and imports declined, which mathematically boosted GDP but doesn’t scream runaway demand.

What this means for you is simple:
This was a strong number, but not an inflation-panic number. Bond markets saw it as confirmation of resilience, not as a reason to sharply reprice mortgage rates.

Housing Trends & Price Outlook

Strong economic growth often grabs headlines — but housing reacts more to rates, affordability, and confidence than GDP alone.

Right now, buyers are still rate-sensitive. Sellers are still price-sensitive. And markets like Raleigh continue to show balance, not excess.

In other words:
Growth supports housing stability. It doesn’t automatically restart bidding wars.

Raleigh / Wake County Snapshot

Here in Raleigh and across Wake County, activity naturally slowed during the holidays — which is normal.

Homes that are priced correctly are still moving. Homes that are anchored to early-year expectations are sitting.

This seasonal pause often creates quiet opportunities — especially for prepared buyers working with a Top Raleigh Mortgage Lender who understands timing, structure, and negotiation leverage.

Buyer & Homeowner Perspective

On the labor front, Initial Jobless Claims fell by 10,000, with just 214,000 new filings.

That’s still historically low.

Some of this reflects seasonality. Some reflect the evolving labor market, in which many displaced workers opt for contract or app-based work rather than filing claims that don’t fully cover their living expenses.

The takeaway?

The labor market is cooling — not cracking.

For Raleigh homeowners, this supports stability.

For Raleigh buyers, it supports confidence.

For Raleigh refinancers, it reinforces why strategy matters more than headlines.

If you want deeper weekly context like this, the Martini Mortgage Podcast breaks it down in plain English — no noise, no hype.

TL;DR (Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for December 26, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group)

  • Q3 2025 GDP surprised to the upside at 4.3%, indicating economic resilience.
  • Growth was driven by consumer spending, not runaway inflation.
  • Mortgage rates mainly stayed flat during holiday-thinned trading.
  • Raleigh and Wake County housing activity slowed seasonally — not structurally.
  • Low jobless claims continue to support housing stability across North Carolina.

The Martini Mortgage Group Takeaway

Strong growth. Calm rates. And a Raleigh housing market that’s steady — not stretched. This is where preparation quietly wins. While others wait for headlines to give permission, informed buyers and homeowners build plans that work in any market. Clarity creates certainty. And certainty creates leverage.

If you want a smarter path forward — whether you’re buying, refinancing, or simply planning — let’s talk.

Call the Martini Mortgage Group at (919) 238-4934 or Schedule a Complimentary Consultation and build your next move with confidence.

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