Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for November 21, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group.
This week, the jobs report finally arrived after the government shutdown — and it landed with a twist.

Existing home sales ticked up. Builder confidence nudged higher. And Raleigh mortgage rates? Still finding their footing as the Fed weighs its next move.

Let’s break it all down with clarity and confidence.

Federal Reserve & Inflation Watch

September job growth came in hotter than expected.
Economists projected 50,000 new jobs — we got 119,000.

But here’s what didn’t make the headlines:
Revisions to July and August cut a combined 33,000 jobs, leaving August with a 4,000 job loss.

And unemployment nudged from 4.3% → 4.4%, another signal the labor market is cooling underneath the surface.

Here’s why that matters:

The Fed has already cut the Fed Funds Rate in September and October. They’re trying to balance stubborn inflation with a job market that’s losing its steam.

But now we hit a wrinkle.

Because of the shutdown, October’s employment report will be partial — no unemployment rate — and won’t drop until December 16. That’s after the Fed’s next meeting on December 9–10.

You might be wondering: So what does the Fed do without fresh data?

From Powell’s October press conference:

• There is “no risk-free path.”
• A December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion.”
• Meeting minutes show most Fed officials leaning against cutting in December.

With no full jobs report before the meeting, Powell and company will likely stay cautious.

Quick refresher — because it always helps:

The Fed doesn’t set Raleigh mortgage rates. It sets the Fed Funds Rate, which affects short-term borrowing. Raleigh mortgage rates move with inflation expectations, bond demand, and economic outlook.

That’s the signal inside the noise.

Raleigh Mortgage Rates & Market Movement

Rates have drifted down from their fall highs, not dramatically, but meaningfully enough to reopen affordability for more Raleigh homebuyers and homeowners.

And here’s the part buyers often miss: Markets react to expectations, not headlines.

Even with uncertainty around the December Fed meeting, cooling labor data keeps downward pressure on longer-term rates. If inflation continues easing, Raleigh mortgage rates could see more stability heading into winter.

What this means for you is simple: If you’re planning to buy or refinance, your opportunity window may already be open.

Housing Trends & Price Outlook

Existing home closings rose 1.2% from September to October. Year-over-year, they’re up 1.7% — a quiet sign of returning momentum.

And these closings reflect buyers shopping in August and September, before the more recent rate improvements.

Translation: The next few months of housing data could look even stronger.

Builder confidence also ticked up to 38 in November, the highest since April. Lower rates improve affordability, and builders feel that shift first.

Is uncertainty still in the air? Of course. But the trendlines — both nationally and here in Raleigh — are pointing toward a healthier, more active market as we move into 2026.

Raleigh / Wake County Snapshot

Wake County demand remains steady, driven by job growth, population inflow, and limited inventory.

Prices haven’t surged — but they haven’t slipped either. Instead, Raleigh continues to shine as one of the most stable real estate markets in the Southeast.

Here’s why that matters: In volatile markets, stability is a strategy. Raleigh continues to offer both predictability and long-term upside, even as rates fluctuate.

Buyer & Homeowner Perspective

If you’re buying:

Falling rates + rising sales = a window you shouldn’t ignore. The longer buyers wait for “perfect timing,” the more likely they are to miss today’s opportunities.

If you’re a homeowner:

Lower rates may make it worth reviewing your refinance options — whether to lower your payment, consolidate debt, or reset your financial strategy.

If there’s uncertainty about whether it’s the right time to buy or refinance, Logan Martini at the Martini Mortgage Group can provide a personalized plan rooted in clarity and confidence.

TL;DR (Raleigh Mortgage Rate Update for November 21, 2025, by Martini Mortgage Group)

• September jobs beat expectations, but big revisions show the labor market softening beneath the surface.
• No full jobs report until December 16, which means the Fed will go into its December meeting flying partially blind.
• A December rate cut is unlikely based on recent Fed commentary.
• Raleigh and Wake County housing activity is strengthening — existing home sales rose 1.2% month over month.
• Builder confidence hit its highest level since April as mortgage rates eased.
• Raleigh’s stability continues to be its superpower for long-term homeownership and wealth-building.

THE LOGAN MARTINI TAKEAWAY

The labor market is cooling. The Fed is cautious. And Raleigh? Still resilient — still steady.
While national narratives create confusion, the Raleigh housing market continues to deliver quiet opportunities for buyers who act with strategy rather than emotion.

If clarity creates certainty — and certainty creates power — let’s build yours together.

📞 Call Raleigh Mortgage Lender Logan Martini at (919) 238-4934, and let’s create your personalized mortgage plan with absolute confidence.

Logan Martini

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