Housing Bubble or Opportunity

In Raleigh, is Perception Reality as it Relates to Housing?

Many homeowners and future homebuyers are concerned that a housing bubble is beginning to be formed and some believe we are already in a bubble.  Is this perception realty? It is understandable why some have this perception however perception is not always reality. Episode 132 of Martini Mortgage Podcast takes a deep dive into the data to compare 2007 to 2022.

SPOILER ALERT: the 2022 real estate market is nothing like the 2007 real estate market.

Certified Mortgage Advisor, Kevin Martini with the Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial Group will share 4 reason why real estate today is not a housing bubble: 1) Affordability 2) Mortgage Standards 3) Foreclosures 4) Inventory.

Listen, enjoy and reach out to the Martini Mortgage Group by calling (919) 238-4934 with questions.

Some Key Quotes from Episode 132 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast

In an annual Gallup poll, 71% of U.S. adults predict home values of homes where they live will increase over the next year.  This poll has also highlighted that real estate is the best long-term investment – oh by the way, real estate has been the best long-term investment for the past 8-years over stocks, gold and savings accounts. 

Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini | Episode 132 ‘Housing Bubble or Opportunity’

There are 3 components to affordability, and they are: the price of the home, wages earned by the homebuyer and the current mortgage rate. 15-years ago, home prices were very high, wages were low and mortgage rates we over 6%. Yup, today home prices are still high, and you know what else is higher today, wages.  You know what is not high today, mortgage rates.  Home loan rates today are lower than they were 15-years ago and from a historical standard they are very low and below where they were in 2007.

Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini | Episode 132 ‘Housing Bubble or Opportunity’

As a primer for all, the housing supply inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately a 6-month supply of home for sale.  More than 6-months of supply is considered an overabundance.  Overabundance will cause prices to depreciate.  Less than 6-months is a shortage of housing inventory and will lead to home appreciation. In 2007 to 2010 there was an overabundance, and most were distressed sales which caused prices to crash. Today there is a shortage of inventory, and the shortage of housing inventory is causing an acceleration in home values. It is critical to highlight a housing shortage does not mean that buyers cannot find a home.  Every day at the Martini Mortgage Group families are getting their offers accepted by sellers.

Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini | Episode 132 ‘Housing Bubble or Opportunity’

Kevin Martini | NMLS 143962 | Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager | Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial Group (powered by Celebrity Home Loans, LLC NMLS 227765) | 507 N Blount St Raleigh, NC 27604 | (919) 238-4934 | www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com | [email protected] | nmlsconsumeraccess.org | Equal Housing Lender

Transcript from Episode 132 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast

There are some consumers today that have the perception that there is a housing bubble beginning or worse their perception is that we are already in a real estate bubble. 

I have a news flash…perception is not reality and in this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, I am going to show real factual data to show why we are not in a housing bubble but a housing opportunity.

If you are a first-time listener to the Martini Mortgage Podcast welcome and thank you for tuning in.  If you are repeat listener, thank you and welcome back and buckle up because this is going to be a very impactful episode.

My name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor and the founder of the Martini Mortgage Group with PCL Financial Group which has its headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina however we help families all over the great state of North Carolina and in almost every state in the U.S. … if you want trusted mortgage advise I am here to help – with that said, let me dig into this episode, episode 132. 

In an annual Gallup poll, 71% of U.S. adults predict home values of homes where they live will increase over the next year.  This poll has also highlighted that real estate is the best long-term investment – oh by the way, real estate has been the best long-term investment for the past 8-years over stocks, gold and savings accounts. 

If you are thinking of buying a home in 2022, this poll should provide confirmation that owning real estate is great investment.  Real estate is a great investment and maybe even a required investment to make during times of high inflation like we are experiencing today. As you know, inflation has reached it highest level in 40-years.  In the simplest form, inflation means prices are increasing everywhere however when you have a mortgage that carries a fixed rate, you are locking in your housing costs, and by locking your housing costs, this shields you and your family from increasing housing payments.

I know what you are saying, what about taxes and insurance?  Yes, property taxes and homeowner insurance are not fixed costs since they can change form year to year and they may rise but your pure housing payment, which is the biggest portion of your housing expense will remain the same with a fixed rate mortgage. 

Here is a Kevin Martini nugget I must share…if you rent, you do not have the same benefit of locking in your housing costs so, you are not protected from increases in your housing costs since rent are rising expositional.  For most of the families I work with as their Certified Mortgage Advisor, we have found that renting is less affordable than homebuying.

Let me circle back on the inflation for a hot second…when you own a home, your home is an asset that will typically increase in value over time, even during periods of inflation.

Why you ask? 

Well, as prices rise, the value of your home does too and that make owning a home a great hedge during periods of inflation, especially in periods of high inflation.

OK, OK, you get it.  Owning a home is a smart investment even during periods when inflation is rearing its ugly head.

Ok, OK you get that when you lock in a housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage, you are shielded from housing cost increases. 

OK, OK, you understand what I am sharing but you are concerned that a real estate bubble is forming or worse we are in a housing bubble.

Let me share a news flash with you! 

We are not in a real estate bubble, and I truly believe we are in a period that we will call the ‘good old days of real estate’ when we look back 3 or 5 or 10-years for now.

Real estate today is materially different than real estate was 15-years ago during what some call housing crash or what I call ‘mortgage renaissance’. 2022 is not 2007 and I am going to highlight 4 reasons why today is not like it was.

Kevin Martini reason number 1 why we are not in a housing bubble is houses are not unaffordable like they were during the housing boom.

There are 3 components to affordability, and they are: the price of the home, wages earned by the homebuyer and the current mortgage rate. 15-years ago, home prices were very high, wages were low and mortgage rates we over 6%. Yup, today home prices are still high, and you know what else is higher today, wages.  You know what is not high today, mortgage rates.  Home loan rates today are lower than they were 15-years ago and from a historical standard they are very low and below where they were in 2007.

There is no question, affordability today is not as strong as it was last-year however affordability is much better than it was during the housing boom.

Kevin Martini reason number 2 why we are not in a housing bubble is mortgage standards.  During the boom and then bubble, mortgage standards were much more relaxed, and this made essentially anyone eligible for a mortgage. Today, mortgage standards are nothing like they were during the boom however common sense is still deployed with the Martini Mortgage Group.

Kevin Martini reason number 3 why we are not in a housing bubble is foreclosures.  Today the foreclosure situation is nothing like it was during the crash. In 2007 was over 1.1 million foreclosures, in 2008 there were over 1.7 million in foreclosures, in 2009 there were over 2 million in foreclosures in 2010 there were over 1.8 million in foreclosures. During the 4-years of the housing crash there was about 7 million foreclosures and during the last 4 years, specifically 2018 to 2021 there have been under a total under 725,000. A little over 556,000 were in 2018 and 2019 —129,000 in 2020 and in 2021 there were only 38,040. 

For those folks that want to poke holes in the data, I know what you are thinking – there was a forbearance program in place is 2020 and 2021. Yes, the forbearance program was designed to help good people that fell on hard times courtesy of the evil pandemic. At the time of recording this episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast there were fewer than 800,000 homeowners left on this forbearance program, and most will be able to work out a repayment plan.

Kevin Martini reason number 4 why we are not in a housing bubble is we do not have a surplus of homes on the market. 

As a primer for all, the housing supply inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately a 6-month supply of home for sale.  More than 6-months of supply is considered an overabundance.  Overabundance will cause prices to depreciate.  Less than 6-months is a shortage of housing inventory and will lead to home appreciation. In 2007 to 2010 there was an overabundance, and most were distressed sales which caused prices to crash. Today there is a shortage of inventory, and the shortage of housing inventory is causing an acceleration in home values. It is critical to highlight a housing shortage does not mean that buyers cannot find a home.  Every day at the Martini Mortgage Group families are getting their offers accepted by sellers.

Today, the housing inventory is nothing like it was during the housing inventory during the boom,  bubble and then bust.

If your perception is that real estate is ripe and rotten then your perception is not reality.  Real estate is green and growing today and into the long-term future.

It is never too soon to explore your homeownership options…it is never too late to explore your homeownership options either.  If homeownership is right for you and your family then know this…the first step is always the loan not the home. 

There is never a substitute for having price and cost clarity before you start looking for a home. Get pre-approved before your home search not just pre-qualified!  To a seller a pre-qualification says you are just ready and willing whereas a pre-approval with a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Group says you are ready, willing and able.  It also communicates to the seller you are making a ‘same-as-cash’ offer and that is important to share in any market, especially in a tight real estate market like we are in today.

If you want trusted advice with a digital mortgage process that offer a great rate with certainty check out my website by going to: www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – you can find some real world information there and you can also securely apply online or book an appointment with me.

My name is Kevin Martini and thank you for tuning into episode 132 which has been called; ‘Housing Bubble or Opportunity’

Now it is time for the disclaimer:

This material has been prepared for marketing purposes only. This is not a loan commitment or guarantee of any kind. Loan approval and rate are dependent upon borrower credit, collateral, financial history, and program availability at time of origination. Rates and terms are subject to change without notice. The Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial is a division of Celebrity Home Loans, NMLS # 227765 with a Branch address of 507 N Blount St Raleigh, North Carolina 27604. You can contract Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager, Kevin Martini NMLS# 143962 by calling the Branch and that number is 919.238.4934. For a full list and more licensing information please visit: www.NMLSConsumerAccess.org or by visiting www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – Equal Housing Lender