The loudest voice is an idiot!

July 9, 2022 by Kevin Martini

The headlines today about real estate and mortgage rates is not breaking news as advertised, it is a developing story.

If you only listen to the headlines of home value deceleration and fluctuating mortgage rates, you will miss the real opportunity that is present in housing. Today, the news has become so sensationalized and headline may be factual correct but they do not tell the whole story and that is why Raleigh mortgage broker and Certified Mortgage Advisor Kevin Martini hosted episode 149 of the Martini Mortgage podcast which is called: The loudest voice is an idiot!

Recession

It appears inevitable that a recession is coming or worse, we are already in a recession. Based on history, mortgage rates rise leading into a recession because of inflation. At the end of the recession, over the last 5 recession, mortgage rates have fallen just under 2%.

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Martini Mortgage Podcast Transcript

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Today we live in a digital world where our phones are constantly beeping with notifications. Then, shortly after you read the notification, your friend texts you the headline of what you were just notified on.

Even though we are in world where we feverishly get unsolicited information or we get on-demand 24-hours a day information we are seeking, I always ask myself this question, is the information that is being sent or is the information I secured actually correct. What do I think this, well, I have been in the financial services since the late 80’s and I have worked exclusively in the real estate and mortgage arena since 2006 and today I am hearing pundits sharing obituaries of real estate because seasonally adjusted sales for 2022 are at 5.4 million vs the 6.1 million in 2021. These self claimed guru’s are giving the eulogy for mortgages because mortgage rates have fluctuated upward this year.

Headlines often mislead people into thinking something but the really story is in the article and by looking at the data. Sure mortgage rates are higher and yes, less homes will be sold in 2022 than 2021. Both of these facts are accurate but misleading…let me expand, in 2022, there is projected to be more home sold then there were in 2019 which is before the veil pandemic reared its head and…from a historical perspective, mortgage rates remain near all-time low.

Welcome to special episode 149 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, my name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor and a member of the National Association of Certified Mortgage Advisors. I help families create generational wealth in real estate with the right mortgage strategy. I am located in Raleigh, North Carolina however myself along with my very talented crew of mortgage professionals help families in all 100 counties of North Carolina and pretty much in ever state in the U.S. too! I am calling this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast; The loudest voice is an idiot!

Let me start with mortgage rates and then shift to talk about real estate home values.

Higher mortgage rates do not cause inflation, inflation causes higher mortgage rates. With these historic high inflation readings, mortgage rates have moved upward in 2022. To me, home loan rates are still on-sale. Let me give you some perspective. When my wife and I purchased our first home, the rate was in the mid 9’s and that was for an adjustable rate mortgage not even a fixed rate mortgage.

When something deviates from the expected, it is called an anomaly. The pandemic was an anomaly. The pandemic created a recession. Did you know in February 2020 we went into a recession. In February 2020, the 30-year fixed rate was at 3.8% and then on the other side of the recession in the April 2020 the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 2.8%.

The pandemic and the end of 2020 recession created an atypical mortgage rate environment. Money for a home loan was not just on-sale, it was on clearance. This clearance created a surge in home buying activity.

The pandemic clearance mortgage rate is no longer available however mortgage rates are still on sale and they are not at the suggested retail price. Check this out, in late 70’s mortgage rates were over 11%. In the 80’s mortgage rates were a little under 17% and that today is a credit card rate. In 1990, mortgage rates were more than 10%. When I say money is on sale, today you will likely get a better rate than when you parents purchased a home and a materially better rate than when your grandparents purchased a home too.

Here is one thing that you need to know. The first thing is this; it should always be home loan first and then go find your home. The second thing you should know is. it’s OK to marring your home and date your rate. Almost all the families I have had the privilege to serve this year are dating their rate. All families I have served and manage their mortgage are right now are dating their rate and are married to their home.

History is crystal clear. The Fed takes action to get control of inflation. Granted they are always late to the party and they stay too long but they get the job done and the inevitable recession of 2022 will be in the rearview mirror. Once recession 2022 is in the book, mortgage rates would shift significantly lower. Don’t believe me? Ok, let me share the raw data with you.

In the US there were six major recession since 1980. In the 1980 recession which lasted six months mortgage, mortgage rates went from 16% to 11.8%.

There was a recession that started July 1981 and it ended 16 months later in November of 1982. At the start rates were 18% and post recession went down 5% to 13%.

In the early 90’s there was an 8-month recession and mortgage rates went form 11% to 8.8%.

When there was a recession in the early 2000’s, the it lasted 8-months and mortgage rates went from 7.4% to 6.8%.

Then there was the great recession which lasted 18 months and mortgage rates dropped by more than 1%.

The COVID 19 recession was very brief. Mortgage rates went from basically 4% to 2.8%.

Now there is a couple things you are thinking right now because you were either part of the housing crisis in 2008 or someone you cared about was negatively impacted by the housing crisis.

It is critical to know, he great recession was caused by the housing crisis and it is critical to know that recession’s do not cause housing crisis. The ingredients that caused the housing crisis are not present today and will not be rinsed and repeated.

As you have just heard, money is on-sale today and it is likely to go back on clearance once this inflationary pressure is relieved and you know what else is on sale today, homes.

You will be hearing chicken little shouting that inventory of homes for sale is up. It is an indisputable fact that months of inventory of homes for sale is higher in May 2022 that it was January of 2022. Oh by the way, May 2022 is the most recent data available at time of recording episode 149 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast.

In January 2022 there was a 1.6 month supply and in May 2022 there was a 2.6 month supply. Let me state the fact, some of this increase is because of more homes entering the market but the major reason is because there is slower pace in sales and that is not a bad thing. Let me say it another way, essentially right now there is the same inventory but with slower sales cycle and this represents an epic opportunity for a home buyer.

Granted, technically we are still in a Seller’s market. You see when the supply of homes for sale is under 6-months, it is considered Seller market and when supply is greater than 6 months it is considered a buyer’s market. So, we are under 6-months, why am I saying that right now is an epic opportunity for home buyers?

Simply put you a buyer has a stronger negotiating position today than they did in January. In addition, according to the home price expectation survey, home values are predicted to essentially have a 25% cumulative appreciation over the next 5-years and there is more, there is a housing supply shortage in the U.S. right now. According to the National Association of Realtors, there is currently a shortage of 5.5 million homes. This shortage will not be resolved in a year or even 5-years, it is going to take decades.

Now let me talk about existing home sales. They were 6.1 million in 2021 and the forecast is at 5.4 million for 2022. Yes, 2022 will have less sales than 2021 but remember that 2021 was part of the pandemic anomaly. 2022 will be better than 2019 and 2018 and is just a little less than 2017 however the year is not over.

Real estate is not ripe and written like many tabloids are sharing. Real estate is green and growing! Now is the time to marry your home. Yes, you can still get a 30-year fixed rate that you can date and take advantage of the historic downward momentum in mortgage rates post-recession. It is my opinion, based on history, there could be a 2% reduction in rate. Well when that happens, we will not longer date the rate, we will marry it.

In closing, there are a lot of talking heads peddling headlines to shock and scare…when you look at the data, it is clear, right now is the time to explore your homeownership options. My name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor and I provide the families I serve with bankable guidance by being transparent with all of the options. During our free consultation, I can tailor a program to meet your individual needs based on your unique situation. In addition, all the families I serve are empowered and have certainty.

You can reach me by dialing 919.238.4934.

Thank you for tuning in and please share this episode with someone you care about.

Now it is time for the disclaimer:

This material has been prepared for marketing purposes only. This is not a loan commitment or guarantee of any kind.

Loan approval and rate are dependent upon borrower credit, collateral, financial history, and program availability at time of origination.

Rates and terms are subject to change without notice.

The Martini Mortgage Group at PCL Financial is a division of Celebrity Home Loans, NMLS # 227765 with a Branch address of 507 N Blount St Raleigh, North Carolina 27604.

You can contact Certified Mortgage Advisor and Producing Branch Manager, Kevin Martini NMLS# 143962 by calling the Branch and that number is 919.238.4934. For a full list and more licensing information please visit: www.NMLSConsumerAccess.org or by visiting www.MartiniMortgageGroup.com – Equal Housing Lender

The Logan Martini Market Update (June 6, 2022)

June 6, 2022 by Kevin Martini

Raleigh mortgage broker and mortgage strategist, Logan Martini, shares what happened last week and what to expect this week in the Logan Martini Market Update (week ending June 10, 2022).

LAST WEEK IN THE REAL ESTATE & MORTGAGE MARKETS

Last week 2 important pieces of data were released; the Unemployment Rate held steady in May 2022 and home appreciation surged.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, what does it really show?

390,000 jobs were created in May and that was stronger than the 320,000 expectations however there were negative revisions to the data for previous months (e.g. March & April) which diluted the number some. It is important to know that the headline Unemployment Rate removes people who are not actively searching for a job and there were almost 6 million people that are not being counted who “want a job” but have not looked in the last four weeks. The U-6 all-in unemployment rate, which adds back all these individuals and is more indicative of the true unemployment rate, increased for the second month in a row, rising from 7% to 7.1%. This could be a signal on unemployment and a sign that things are slowing, and we may have seen the low in unemployment.

HOME PRICES are higher today than a year ago!

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices rose 2.6% in March and 20.6% year-over-year. This annual reading is an increase from the 19.8% gain in the previous report. If this pace of monthly appreciation continues, and we are showing no reason why it would not, appreciation could be over 30% this year!

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) also released their House Price Index. This report measures home price appreciation on single-family homes with conventional loan amounts, which means it most likely represents lower-priced homes. Home prices rose 1.5% in March and 19% year-over-year.

Up, up & up are rents according to the Apartment List’s National Rent Report which revealed that rents increased by 1.2% in May and 15.3% year-over-year.

THIS WEEK IN THE RALEIGH MORTGAGE MARKETS

The economic calendar is quiet this week, except for May’s consumer inflation report scheduled for release on Friday. The market is expecting year-over-year consumer inflation to come in at 8.3%, which would be consistent with April’s inflation rate.

There won’t be any speeches from Fed policymakers this week, due to their one-week “blackout” period before their monetary policy meeting. This may contribute to the uneasy silence and tension in the market this week. Are we in the calm before the storm?

On Friday, the calm may be disrupted if Friday’s inflation numbers come out above or below market expectations. At this point, the market is expecting the Fed to increase short-term interest rates by 0.5% at their monetary policy meeting next week. It will be interesting to see if the odds change toward a more aggressive stance after Friday’s inflation report.

The Martini Mortgage Group will not just be watching for the inflation report that will be released on Friday but will be closely watching the Wednesday’s10-year Note and Thursday 30-year Bond auctions for demand.

THE LOGAN MARTINI BOTTOM LINE

Be prepared for more volatility and remember, right now, real estate and the current mortgage rate environment remains an opportunity. From a historical perspective, home loan rates are still very low even with the upward movement in 2022. Mortgage Strategists with the Martini Mortgage Group are here to talk about what you have just read and available to help you on the path to buying you home. Contact the Martini Mortgage Group by dialing (919) 238-4934.

Logan Martini

A Raleigh Real Estate Crash Coming Soon, NOT!

May 19, 2022 by Kevin Martini

A topic that is on the mind of many potential first-time homebuyers and current homeowners in Raleigh, North Carolina and really in every city in the U.S. is, are heading into a housing crash because we are in a housing bubble that is going to burst.

Raleigh Mortgage Broker and Certified Mortgage Lender, Kevin Martini, hosts a very special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast called: A Real Estate Crash Coming soon, NOT!

Episode 143 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast goes beyond the real estate headlines and deep into the data.

Home Price Appreciation Since 1945

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Forbearance Data

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Lending Standards

Foreclosure Activity

Home Price Forecast for 2022

Home Price Expectation Survey | Q1 2022

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Episode 143 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast with Kevin Martini Transcript

A topic that is on the mind of many potential first-time homebuyers and current homeowners in Raleigh, North Carolina and really in every city in the U.S. is…are heading into a housing crash because we are in a housing bubble that is going to burst.

I truly understand why many are concerned with the idea we are in a housing bubble and it is going to burst because 15-years ago we saw home prices fall and it was very painful.

Let me properly communicate this…2022 is not 2008!

Welcome to episode 143 of the Martini Mortgage Podcast, my name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Mortgage Group which is located in Raleigh, North Carolina however myself along with my very talented crew of mortgage professionals help families in all 100 counties of North Carolina and pretty much in ever state in the U.S. too! I am calling this special episode of the Martini Mortgage Podcast; A Real Estate Crash Coming Soon, NOT!

Opinions are like belly buttons, everyone has one. Some opinions are based on what one feels and some opinions are based on data. I believe when you use data to form an opinion it clears the path so one can make an educated decision based on facts. I believe educated decisions puts you ahead of the crowd.

Some folks feel we are in a real estate bubble and this bubble is going to burst and when it burst it is going to cause a housing crash like we saw in 2008. If you feel this way, with respect, you are incorrect. Let me share with you why we are not in a housing bubble and why we are not heading into a housing bubble.

Let me start with when the modern day housing boom started and that was 1945. World War II ended and soldiers were coming back and they were using the earned VA benefit where they could buy a home. Ever since then and up to today…there has ONLY been one time where homes in the U.S. lost a significant value and that was in 2008.

Why did we see homes lose value in 2008?

There were several reasons why homes lost value and they were from pure market speculation to, over supply to, very loose lending standards among other things.

When I say very loose lending standards, I mean back then you could secure a home loan with no income so a job was not required hence there was no verification of employment was even asked for. Think about it, you could buy a home or take money out of your home without really being able to qualify or have the ability to repay the home loan. Simply put, many people that were unable to afford a home were able to buy a home.

I feel it is natural to be concerned if today people are able to make their mortgage payments. Since the evil pandemic reared its ugly head, many families had to go into forbearance. In the simplest form, forbearance is a loan deferment where one can temporarily stop making payments.

About 4.8 million used forbearance to navigate during the pandemic and today there are less than 700,000 loans in forbearance as of April 2022. The number of mortgages in forbearance has dropped significantly and it is true, not everyone will be able to get out of forbearance successfully however that number is very low but rember this, the families that have not been able to recover are not upside-down on the the home and they have the ability to sell and retain a gain to get on with rebuilding. This is very different than what happened 15-years ago.

Aggressive lending standards were one of the components of the housing crisis, and let’s look at where we are today. Today lending standards are nothing like they were in the 2000s.

Consider home loan product risk and borrower risk. Think of the designer mortgage product risk as the all loans that are available to people such as NINA, which was an acronym for no income no assets or SISA, which was an acronym for stated income stated assets. These designer mortgage products have been virtually eliminated from the marketplace.

Oh by the way, these loan programs were not bad products in my opinion. Crazy statement? Not really, when you know these products had a place for the right borrower based on thier situation but these products were sold by some very bad actors to the the wrong people.

Today when getting a mortgage, there is a common sense approach to your ability to repay the home loan. Has it gotten harder. Well, yes if you compare it to the 2000’s but, common sense is still present with underwriting with the Martini Mortgage Group and I feel that product risk and borrower risk is balanced today.

Don’t believe me? Well, today we are at all time low with foreclosure activity. Sure, the last couple of years there has been a moratorium in place and the federal government has stepped in and said, look, we’re not going to process these foreclosures during the pandemic. However, back during the housing crisis, it was tragic that over nine million people went through foreclosure.

Listen, foreclosure are sadly always going to happen because bad things happen to good people. It is sad but it is a reality. Today with the common sense lending standards that have been deployed has led to less foreclosures in the marketplace pre-pandemic and post pandemic.

In other words, with highly qualified or a better qualified borrower, you’re going to see less defaults and we’re seeing exactly that and provides additional confirmation that the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train coming at us but it is rays of sunshine.

I had a conversation with a family I am working with and they were concerned about a ton of things and I understood and I appreciated their concerns. They felt like you may feel…let us see if that is the case. They felt homes are getting too expensive and people are not going to be able to support their debt load and this would cause a collapse in the housing market.

I understand the thought process but the data does not support the thesis because if you look at data from the Federal Reserve, household debt service ratio for mortgages and basically it measures the percentage of disposal personal income. So, think about the total mortgage payments divided by the total disposal personal income. Make sense?

Where the household debt service ratio is for mortgages right now much much lower than where we were in the housing crisis, even lower than we were in the 80s and 90s. And why is that? Because of rising wages. Because of interest rates that we’ve seen. And because folks that are holding mortgages today are in a much, much better position than where they were back in the housing crisis of ‘08.

So is there a bubble forming or are we in a bubble that is getting ready to burst – NO! No there is not a bubble forming and NO we are not in a bubble that is getting ready to burst. There is not an imminent housing crisis however we are right now in a housing boom!

I believe when we look back at 2022 3 to 5 years from now we will call this period of time the good old days of real estate. In other words, you will be with either be very happy that you purchased a home in 2022 or you will wish you would have purchased a home in 2022.

To highlight, Let us look at where we headed. Home prices are higher and Raleigh mortgage rates are higher and getting a mortgage today is a process not an event and then all the chatter from the Federal Reserve…what does it all mean for home values.

Simply put, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CoreLogic, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, Zellman and the Home Price Expectation Survey are the 7 entities the Martini Mortgage Group follows religiously to gauge the future of home values and the average of all 7 say that home values in 2022 will go up 9%.

Are homes going to lose value, well the experts don’t see that. Now we are going to see a deceleration of home values in 2022 as compared to 2021 however declaration does not mean depreciation. Declaration simply means that homes are not going to appreciate as fast as they have. I think deceleration is a good thing and is a sing of a healthy sustainable housing market.

If we want to look beyond 2022 I believe the best survey to look at is the Home Price Expectation Survey which is done by Pulsenomics. The Home Price Expectation Survey is not one persons opinion it is the opinion of a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists and housing market analysts and they project 9% appreciation this year, 4.74% next year, 3.67% appreciation in 2024, 3.41% in 2025 and 3.57% in 2026. That is a 5-year cumulative appreciation of 26.8%.

Oh by the way, 3.84% is the average annual growth in home prices from 1989 to 2019. I was purposeful not to add the last 2-years which has been north of 20% per year to give you some perspective how strong the market has been and will continue to be.

Let me wrap it up. The market today is nothing like the market was 15-years ago. I did not mention it but it is noteworthy to share there are more households today than there were in in 2007. In 2007 there were 116 million households and today there are 130 million households. That is 14 million more households looking for home. In 2007 there are 3.7 million homes for sale and today there are under 900,000 home for sale. More demand and less supply — yikes!

I know there are inventory challenges and mortgage rates have drifted upwards and sure it would have cost less if you purchased 12-months ago but I am reminded of that old Chinese proverb.

“The best time to plant a tree was 20-years ago. The second best time is now.”

Right now is the time to explore your homeownership options as a first-time or as repeat homebuyer. Perhaps you are living in your house that you own but you and your family have outgrown it— now is the time to upgrade. Perhaps you are renting and paying your landlords mortgage for them, now is time to explore your options.

My name is Kevin Martini and I am a Certified Mortgage Advisor with the Martini Mortgage Group. I provide trusted advice with a frictionless process that offers great rates and certainty to you and your family. My number is 919.238.4934.

Looking forward to connect, stay safe out there and wishing you peace and blessings.